Prop 19

[mrjizzbomber]

The poll - Will it pass?

The thread - Should it? How would this affect our country? If it passes, how long until a nation legalization initiative is successful? If it fails, how long until a similar initiative is passed in California (if ever)?

Unbiased info - http://yeson19.com/

[tjb]

id be happy.... until big companies start fucking with it like tobacco

[Robbie G]

I don't smoke but you mine as well legalize it.

[Weather Man]

I voted yes

[mrjizzbomber]

I think it will pass. The most recent poll had the following results:

For Sure YES VOTE - 47%
For Sure NO VOTE - 43%
NOT SURE - 10%

The good news is... with only 2 months to go, the YES vote has it. The bad news is, this is WORSE than the previous TWO polls, both of which came up with:

For Sure YES VOTE - 50%
For Sure NO VOTE - 40%
NOT SURE - 10%

So, the trend is actually going downhill for the YES vote. Still a fairly "healthy" lead... and considering these polls are only sampling 500 to 1000 people each, its hard to take them too seriously. But I still think it will pass for a variety of reasons. I also think they are only polling 'likely voters' for this election, but because of Prop 19 a lot more 'unlikely' voters will come out and hit the polls to vote YES (18, 19, 20 year olds, first time voters, etc).

If it doesn't pass, the next attempt will for sure be in 2012. It was expected this measure wouldn't even be attempted until 2012... presidential elections tend to attract a lot more young voters than mid term elections. So, if not 2010, I will be very confident for 2012. If it fails both times, I will probably lose all hope.

For the record, I also STRONGLY believe that it should pass. It will spark an industry that will help the economy, it will help free up our legal system of petty crimes and it will allow law enforcement to focus on what is important. It will also deter people from harder drugs, as people will no longer have to see a drug dealer for weed. Finally, it will let adults make adult decisions, and overturn a law that is unconstitutional and absurd to begin with.

[AbramIsaac]

I believe it to be possible, and I hope that it will.

It's hard to tell though. There are a lot of religious (read: Conservative) voters who will be hitting the polls extra hard this year in order to "Take America Back", so to speak. While a truly conservative voter would vote "Yes" due to the fact that marijuana prohibition is a huge money pit, lacking solid constitutional basis, the fact is that Christian Churches are usually against it.

New voters may register for this issue alone. However, traditionally speaking, it's important to target these voters during presidential elections, as they draw in the most new and young voters. Richard Lee didn't want to wait until 2012 to push the initiative, and I don't blame him. The truth of the matter is that the momentum for marijuana legalization has been higher (pun) these past two years than ever before. It's important to capitalize on that momentum before the pendulum swings in the other direction.

Prop 19 will also benefit from non-Caucasian voting segments as well. Since non-whites are target at a far higher rate for possession charges (while having lower usage rates) the special interest groups for those people have began to support the initiative. Politicians have also shown favor to the issue, moreso than ever before--it's becoming less taboo, and the economy has made it acceptable to debate.

It's going to be very close. Then again, Proposition 215 was close as well, and it was the domino that changed everything, 14 years ago.

[mrjizzbomber]

Heres an interesting read. Apparently, Prop 19 is beating out any politician for Facebook popularity...

http://firedoglake.com/2010/09/13/like- ... ifornia-2/

I think the key take-away in this is something I was thinking earlier...

The big question is whether this strong online support will translate into votes. If there are large numbers of infrequent or new voters that do plan to turn out in November to support Prop 19, they could be getting overlooked by pollsters using traditional likely voter models, greatly throwing off the poll results.

[mrjizzbomber]

http://www.scpr.org/news/2010/09/14/Prop19-law/

A panel of criminal justice experts, including a former Los Angeles police sergeant and a retired Torrance police officer, say that enforcing pot laws is dangerous work for cops. They say it promotes violence, because many gang members sell joints and dime bags to pay for weapon purchases and turf wars.

http://www.vcstar.com/news/2010/sep/13/ ... itz-state/

A former police chief of California’s third-largest city said Monday that state voters will have the opportunity “to strike more of a blow than law enforcement ever could against drug cartels” by approving Proposition 19, the measure that would legalize the possession and regulated sales of marijuana.

[mrjizzbomber]

http://the420times.com/2010/09/beer-dis ... -campaign/

Big alcohol is contributing to the NO on Prop 19 campaign. Hmmm, alcohol trying to stop marijuana legalization? It sounds like they are nervous it will lead to a decrease in alcohol use/abuse. How transparent... Tell me, how is this not a huge BOOST to the legalization efforts?

Anyway, this article (http://hawaiinewsdaily.com/2010/09/16/b ... -campaign/) puts it best:

I’ll give the final word to DrugWarRant blogger extraordinaire Pete Guither who says it best, “If you’re opposed to Prop 19, you’re on the side of the narcs, the cartels, the sheriffs, and the booze industry.”

[mrjizzbomber]

Two new polls released this week:

http://the420times.com/2010/09/ca-prop- ... -new-poll/
http://elections.firedoglake.com/2010/0 ... yusa-poll/

In one, the YES vote was 47%, the NO vote was 38%
In the second, the YES vote was 47%, the NO vote was 42%
The most recent previous pole, the YES vote was 47%, the NO vote was 43%
Before that, the YES vote was 50%, the NO vote was 40%
The most "promising" poll, the YES vote was 52%, the NO vote was 36%

As one article explains, the important number is the YES vote, as undecided voters tend to default to "NO" if they don't make up their mind by election day. The YES vote is very steadily been between 47-52%. This is a great sign - but, it will be very close.

Here is the absurdity of the situation (to me):

Not surprisingly, this most recent poll from SurveyUSA also found that marijuana legalization enjoys overwhelming support among voters under 35 (62-29) and strong opposition from senior citizens (34-52). The bad news for Prop 19 is that midterm elections are normally dominated by older voters. For example, in 2008, voters under 25 made up 11.28 percent of the electorate in California, but in 2006 they made up only 5.85 percent.

The big question that Prop 19’s success or failure hangs on is probably whether having marijuana legalization on the ballot causes the young voters that overwhelmingly support it to turn out in higher numbers, like the levels seen for a presidential election. High youth turnout could be the difference between a 49-51 loss and a 51-49 victory. The evidence from PPP polling is that Prop 19 is likely having some measurable effect on increased enthusiasm among younger voters.

Even if Prop 19 barely fails this time, the huge age divide means that it is only a matter of a few years before there is a clear voting majority for marijuana legalization in California.

How sad is it that the only thing that my hold such an important piece of legislation back is that "older voters" aka senior citizens are 52% against the legislation? By the way, this is the same demographic that was brainwashed into thinking marijuana is deadly, causes psychosis, and is dangerous, addictive and as bad as heroine or other hard drugs. These are the same people who were fooled by the Regan Administration, and blasted with propaganda of Americas war on drugs. Oh, and these are also the people who are so old, this legislation hardly affects their lives whatsoever... those who are under 35 support the legislation overwhelmingly... the people who will actually have their lives affected by the outcome of the vote.

Not saying old people shouldn't vote - but its clearly a funny little dilemma that results in our system. Those who are almost gone from this world leave their parting votes to determine how the rest of us must live... and of course, they are dramatically antithesis to what "the rest of us" really want. Sigh.

[Sir_Machete']

god damn it

[Block]

I can see it now, "Yo go grab me a pack of L's from the paki station"


haha.